Washington, DC--March 15, 2004-- The Commerce Department last week suggested that America could benefit from double-digit growth in exports.

According to a release of a record monthly deficit report for January, U.S. international trade figures

A new report from The Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI expects capital goods exports to show the greatest strength, with upwards of 20 percent annualized growth in a number of quarters during the remainder of 2004 and through 2005. Vehicle export growth is expected to be between 14 percent and 22 percent through the balance of 2004 and the first half of 2005, but growth is expected to taper off to single digits in the second half. Consumer goods exports are expected to grow at more modest rates of between 8 percent and 11 percent throughout 2004 and 2005.

Manufacturers Alliance is projecting a further decline of between 8% and 10% in the value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of other major industrial economies during the first three quarters of this year followed by a 3% decline in the final quarter of the year. In 2005, the alliance forecasts a 1% rise in the value of the dollar during the first six months and a 2% appreciation in the second half.

In terms of global growth, with the possibility of a bottoming in European economic activity, clear strength in Japan and much of East Asia, and the likelihood that the Canadian recovery will strengthen over time, growth in the industrialized world should hover at or around 3 percent throughout 2004, strengthen to an average of 3.5 percent in the first half of 2005, and then soften to just under 3 percent in the second half of 2005.

The reverse is expected in developing countries. Due primarily to the risk of a significant slowdown in Chinese economic growth, the Alliance forecasts that the overall growth in the developing countries will soften in the second half of 2004 to approximately 3.2 percent (from 4.2 percent in the first half) before strengthening modestly to an estimated 3.5 percent in 2005 as the Chinese government implements policies to bring growth back to trend.

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